Gas has no guarantee of major Indian generation role

ExxonMobil study sees significant variation in penetration of gas-fired power in 2040

The share of gas in India’s generation mix in the April 2017-March 2018 fiscal year was just 4pc, according to the country’s Central Electricity Authority (CEA), down from a peak of 12pc in FY2009-10. This leaves substantial potential for gas-for-power demand to grow, even if—as Dimitri Papageorgiou, research associate at ExxonMobil, told Petroleum Economist’s LNG to Power APAC virtual forum in late October—the CEA sees coal declining from its more than 70pc historical share (see Fig. 1) but still retaining a 50pc+ slice of generation requirements. For one thing, Indian power demand is projected to increase two-and-a-half times from 2017 to 2040, according to the IEA’s New Policies scenario.