California LCFS market braced for stricter targets

Low Carbon Fuel Standard credit prices bottoming out despite continued surge in renewable diesel supply

The boom in renewable diesel supply to California is set to continue, but prices under the state’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) may have already bottomed out as the market braces for stricter targets. The LCFS sets limits to the carbon intensity of transport emissions and awards tradable credits for suppliers who reduce emissions from a certain baseline. Prices are around $75/t, said Adam Schubert, senior associate at consultancy Stillwater Associates. They remain well below the levels seen in 2020, when monthly prices consistently averaged around $200/t, but they have bounced back from a low of $60/t in February 2023. “We forecast [renewable diesel] demand to increase and assume th