China’s Five-Year Plan and ETS to see CO₂ rising till 2030

Concentration on reducing carbon intensity means total emissions are likely to continue to increase

China’s fourteenth Five-Year Plan, unveiled on 5 March, had the clearest focus yet on climate change. The world’s largest carbon emitter used the plan to officially launch its emissions trading system (ETS), underpinned by ambitious emission reduction targets in later years. The Five-Year Plan calls for carbon emissions to peak by 2030. Meanwhile, carbon intensity—emissions per unit of output—are set to decline by 18pc by 2025 from 2020 levels. Likewise, energy consumption per unit of GDP is set to decline by 13.5pc. Carbon intensity is intended to fall 65pc from 2005 levels by 2030. “The 18pc decrease in carbon intensity targeted for 2021-25 leaves room for yearly emissions to increas

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