Time running out for UK North Sea

Smaller projects provide opportunities, but basin maturity and policy shifts amid political uncertainty signal a significant decline by the end of the decade

The UK North Sea has been battered and bruised. First by Covid, then by environmentalists, and finally by a traditionally supportive Conservative government bringing in the Energy Profits Levy (EPL) to 2028—and, just this March, announcing an extension to 2029. The decision to approve drilling at the $3.8b Rosebank project in the West of Shetland gave a confidence boost to the fragile UK North Sea oil sector towards the latter half of 2023.  Containing around 300m bl of oil and owned by Norway’s Equinor and the UK’s Ithaca Energy, it may be one of the last large undeveloped discoveries in UK waters. But this should be viewed as a stay of execution rather than any last hurrah. “Post-Rosebank,