Nigeria has a major problem

Opec production cuts matter far less than international companies deciding to scale back production and capex

Uncertainty often surrounds how Nigeria plans to implement crude production cuts after it has agreed them with Opec. But, this time, IOCs are trimming output anyway due to plunging prices, depressed demand and limited storage—and analysts expect foreign firms to further reduce their presence in Africa’s largest oil producer. NOC Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) has ambitions to raise the country’s oil production to 3mn bl/d by 2023. But such targets are increasingly implausible, and output will decline in the next few years “unless there are marked improvements in the business and investment environment and security”, warns Gail Anderson, research director at consultancy Wood M