Production forecasts: falling, not freezing
Welcome to our in-depth report on production forecasts
IF OIL prices remain around $30 a barrel, output from the world’s major producers will fall by 150,000 barrels a day by mid-2016 and by 0.583m b/d by the year’s end, according to Petroleum Economist’s special report this month. The US will suffer the steepest losses, followed by Russia, Asia, Latin America and the North Sea. Rising Middle Eastern production – chiefly from Iran and a bit from Iraq – and West Africa will temper the losses. These declines should offer glimmers of hope for a price revival. In tandem with a forecast rise in consumption of 1.2m b/d this year, supply and demand should come back into balance in the second half of 2016. Stocks would start to draw down. But strong pri
Also in this section
1 April 2026
Golden Pass’s startup offers QatarEnergy a timely boost but may also force a difficult choice between honouring disrupted contracts and capitalising on soaring spot LNG prices
1 April 2026
It is not a case of if or when, but the length and magnitude of economic damage from elevated oil prices
1 April 2026
The US-Iran conflict demonstrates the need for diversification in several senses of the word. It also exposes the limits of Washington applying pressure on major oil and gas producers it considers geopolitical adversaries
31 March 2026
Disappointing results in its bidding round are a reality check for Libya, and global exploration generally
