Asia past its peak
China’s output will fall this year, the biggest loser as Asia’s oil production drifts lower
THE INTENSE focus on the price war between Saudi Arabia and higher-cost producers has obscured an important trend elsewhere in the market. It appears that China’s oil production probably peaked at one point in 2015, and will enter structural decline some time over the course of the months ahead. This is significant as the country is not just a major crude importer, it is also the world’s fifth-largest oil producer, trailing behind only the US, Russia, Saudi Arabia and Canada. To give that some context, the country pumps quite substantially more oil than Iran and Iraq. The country’s domestic oil production was up 2.2% to 4.3m barrels a day – or just under 5% of global supply – last year compa
Also in this section
5 December 2025
Mistaken assumptions around an oil bull run that never happened are a warning over the talk of a supply glut
4 December 2025
Time is running out for Lukoil and Rosneft to divest international assets that will be mostly rendered useless to them when the US sanctions deadline arrives in mid-December
3 December 2025
Aramco’s pursuit of $30b in US gas partnerships marks a strategic pivot. The US gains capital and certainty; Saudi Arabia gains access, flexibility and a new export future
2 December 2025
The interplay between OPEC+, China and the US will define oil markets throughout 2026
