OPEC+’s cohesive restraint

The alliance is keeping output on track and the market in balance amid geopolitical tensions and a fragile supply-demand ledger

OPEC+’s decision to pause production increases in the first quarter of 2026 is reinforced by January data, which shows that member countries broadly adhered to their commitments. Output remained aligned with agreed targets, according to Petroleum Economist’s survey, reflecting a concerted effort to maintain discipline. Brent prices have stayed above $65/bl—not because of OPEC+ restraint but due to persistent geopolitical tensions. A reduction in regional risks could easily push prices below $60/bl, particularly if non‑OPEC supply growth exceeds expectations and seasonal demand softens. This backdrop explains the group’s cautious stance. OPEC‑9 production in January was largely unchanged, sli