The complex crude glut picture
The swelling crude supply story involves the key plot twists of reluctant buyers, limited oil stocks and refiners playing the long game
The IEA is adamant the crude oil surplus is growing. Much of this oil was produced by Russia and now sits on ships, waiting for buyers. Potential customers, however, who are threatened by US sanctions on Russian oil, cannot be found. Rising tanker rates and increasing crude differentials reflect the situation as more Russian oil ends up in floating storage. It has been recently reported that Urals crude dropped below $40/bl as Dated Brent sold for more than $60/bl. Meanwhile, product inventories are tight and refinery margins are approaching record levels. Refining profits have been boosted by the sanctions on Russian crude as well as the instinct of processors to keep inventories tight when
Also in this section
4 December 2025
Time is running out for Lukoil and Rosneft to divest international assets that will be mostly rendered useless to them when the US sanctions deadline arrives in mid-December
3 December 2025
Aramco’s pursuit of $30b in US gas partnerships marks a strategic pivot. The US gains capital and certainty; Saudi Arabia gains access, flexibility and a new export future
2 December 2025
The interplay between OPEC+, China and the US will define oil markets throughout 2026
1 December 2025
The North African producer’s first bidding round in almost two decades is an important milestone but the recent extension suggests a degree of trepidation
