Supercycle goes into reverse
Oil and gas prices could come crashing down, resurrecting ghosts of trade wars past
Commodity traders such as Jeff Currie, the former Goldman Sachs executive, have often talked of commodity supercycles, trumpeting the rise in commodity prices. Just four years ago, a new multi-year boom was prophesied that would amplify profits of companies in the commodity business and the income of commodity-exporting nations such as Saudi Arabia. But in April 2025, a reverse cycle of potentially similar magnitude is taking hold. Before it ends, crude oil could fall below $20/bl and perhaps even $10/bl, while US gas prices might drop below $1/mcf. The downward cycle could be perpetual, especially if an intensifying trade war between the US and other nations further reduces global oil
Also in this section
17 February 2026
The 25th WPC Energy Congress, taking place in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia from 26–30 April 2026, will bring together leaders from the political, industrial, financial and technology sectors under the unifying theme “Pathways to an Energy Future for All”
17 February 2026
Siemens Energy has been active in the Kingdom for nearly a century, evolving over that time from a project-based foreign supplier to a locally operating multi-national company with its own domestic supply chain and workforce
17 February 2026
Eni’s chief operating officer for global natural resources, Guido Brusco, takes stock of the company’s key achievements over the past year, and what differentiates its strategy from those of its peers in the LNG sector and beyond
16 February 2026
As the third wave of global LNG arrives, Wood Mackenzie’s director for Europe gas and LNG, Tom Marzec-Manser, discusses with Petroleum Economist the outlook for Europe’s gas market in 2026
