Oil outlook: Who and what to believe?
OPEC and the IEA have very different views on where the oil market is headed, leaving analysts wondering which way to jump
When the Israel/Iran conflict broke out in mid-June, the price of Brent crude oil jumped to $79/bl. By mid-August, the price was rangebound at $65–70/bl and WTI trades at roughly $3/bl lower. Where the price goes from here continues to matter to the global economy and to political aspirations. And where that price goes depends on a more-than-usually complex set of factors. Reliable data is important of course, but analysts looking for guidance from the two main intergovernmental institutions—the IEA and OPEC—are left scratching their heads following the release recently of those two bodies’ contrasting monthly outlooks. Geopolitical hotspots The geopolitical trouble spots—Israel/Iran/Hamas a
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