Oil market should maintain fragile balance in 2025
Petroleum Economist analysis sees ICE Brent averaging $79/bl in 2025 as misfiring non-OPEC+ oil supply overshadows tepid demand growth
Oil-producing alliance OPEC+ may be able to breathe a sigh of relief in 2025 as non-OPEC+ supply growth struggles to breach 1m b/d and is overtaken by oil demand growth of 1.2m b/d, according to Petroleum Economist’s oil market forecasts. Those demand-supply balances should help oil prices stay close to 2024’s average of c.$80/bl as OPEC+ sticks to its plan throughout the year. But that does not mean the oil market has a stable trajectory—there is plenty of uncertainty afoot—and key risks to both demand and supply predictions mean the balanced oil market picture is still fragile. The largest known unknowns are around US sanctions, tariffs and trade, with the expansive measures hitting Russia
Also in this section
12 March 2026
Emergency oil stocks provide a last line of defence to oil market shocks, so the IEA’s unprecedented 400m bl release represents something of a double-edged sword
12 March 2026
LPG could rapidly expand access to clean cooking across Africa and prevent hundreds of thousands of deaths from indoor air pollution each year, but infrastructure shortages and regulatory barriers are slowing investment and market growth
11 March 2026
Missiles over Dubai and disruption in Hormuz are testing the emirate’s reputation—and shaking the energy hub at the centre of the Gulf economy
11 March 2026
De la Rey Venter, CEO of LNG player MidOcean Energy, discusses strategy, project developments and the prospects for the LNG market
