Oil market should maintain fragile balance in 2025

Petroleum Economist analysis sees ICE Brent averaging $79/bl in 2025 as misfiring non-OPEC+ oil supply overshadows tepid demand growth

Oil-producing alliance OPEC+ may be able to breathe a sigh of relief in 2025 as non-OPEC+ supply growth struggles to breach 1m b/d and is overtaken by oil demand growth of 1.2m b/d, according to Petroleum Economist’s oil market forecasts. Those demand-supply balances should help oil prices stay close to 2024’s average of c.$80/bl as OPEC+ sticks to its plan throughout the year. But that does not mean the oil market has a stable trajectory—there is plenty of uncertainty afoot—and key risks to both demand and supply predictions mean the balanced oil market picture is still fragile. The largest known unknowns are around US sanctions, tariffs and trade, with the expansive measures hitting Russia