Oil market imbalances divide major energy agencies
OPEC and IEA split on oil demand outlook and even diverge on supply risks, with huge implications for market sentiment
The IEA appears to be factoring in negative sentiment around consumption into its annual outlook, while OPEC seems to be more about extrapolating from the here and now. Given the global economic uncertainty, the oil market appears to be erring towards the IEA’s view, but with a focus on trade tensions with China having somewhat shifted to trade deals in the Middle East, the chasm between the two forecasting agencies may still narrow. The latest monthly oil market reports from the IEA and OPEC paint divergent pictures of 2025 and 2026. While both acknowledge the growing share of non-OECD demand, they differ in overall supply growth forecast, future supply dynamics and the pace of the energy t
Also in this section
10 March 2026
Eni’s director for global gas and LNG portfolio, Cristian Signoretto, discusses how demand will respond to rising LNG supply, and how the company is expanding its own gas and LNG operations through disciplined, capital-efficient investments
9 March 2026
Petroleum Economist analysis sees increases in output from Saudi Arabia, Venezuela and Kazakhstan among others before region’s murky descent
9 March 2026
Energy sanctions are becoming an increasingly prominent tool of US foreign policy, with the country’s growth in oil and gas production allowing it to impose pressure on rivals without jeopardising its own energy security or that of its allies, argues Matthew McManus, a visiting fellow at the National Center for Energy Analytics
6 March 2026
The March 2026 issue of Petroleum Economist is out now!
