IEA and OPEC energy assumptions on fragile ground
Geopolitical uncertainty casts a pall over expectations around demand, supply, investment and spare capacity
OPEC and the IEA largely maintained their overall views of the market in their June 2025 oil market reports, despite geopolitical uncertainty. OPEC held its relatively bullish demand forecast by emphasising a strong base from the first half of 2025 could provide sufficient momentum into a sound second half, even though the growth could moderate on a quarterly basis. Both OPEC members and secondary sources reported only a slight increase in Declaration of Cooperation (DOC) output despite promises of around 550,000b/d of extra output in the past two months. The IEA emphasised structural shifts in its monthly report. it expects Chinese demand to peak before 2030 and foresees a broader decline i
Also in this section
10 March 2026
Eni’s director for global gas and LNG portfolio, Cristian Signoretto, discusses how demand will respond to rising LNG supply, and how the company is expanding its own gas and LNG operations through disciplined, capital-efficient investments
9 March 2026
Petroleum Economist analysis sees increases in output from Saudi Arabia, Venezuela and Kazakhstan among others before region’s murky descent
9 March 2026
Energy sanctions are becoming an increasingly prominent tool of US foreign policy, with the country’s growth in oil and gas production allowing it to impose pressure on rivals without jeopardising its own energy security or that of its allies, argues Matthew McManus, a visiting fellow at the National Center for Energy Analytics
6 March 2026
The March 2026 issue of Petroleum Economist is out now!
