Outlook 2024: Oil pricing in a post-peak-demand world
The carbon intensity of oil may bring a change to pricing long-term
The latest views from the IEA indicate that coal, oil and natural gas demand will peak by 2030, just a handful of years away. Regardless of the date, it is useful to understand how the oil market may change as demand begins to decline. Should demand fall near the natural rate of production decline, as the IEA points out is necessary for the world to reach net zero by 2050, we will see a disruption in the long-term price-setting mechanism for oil. This shift could be as seminal as the switch from posted prices to market prices in the 1970s or the financialisation of oil. The long-term price will fall sharply, placing intense pressure on oil-producing firms seeking to compete to retain a marke
Also in this section
11 February 2026
North African producer plans to boost output by early 2030, with Europe its number one priority as export destination
11 February 2026
Maritime leaders at LNG2026 warned of the dangers of over-regulation on competitiveness, sustainability and innovation
10 February 2026
The country has opened bidding on 50 blocks in a new licensing round but will face competition for attention and will need to address concerns about security and legislation
10 February 2026
The alliance is keeping output on track and the market in balance amid geopolitical tensions and a fragile supply-demand ledger
