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Outlook 2026: Time for a new international energy order
With the arrival of a multipolar world and 4b energy-poor people, the existing energy order is no longer fit for purpose
Outlook 2026: Crude on crude – How shale oil flipped the script on the global barrel
Heavy, sour crude and shale oil will battle for market relevance, but it may not be the sweetest barrels that taste victory
Outlook 2026: LNG markets and the overhang
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Outlook 2026: The next oil shock – From peak demand mirage to structural tightness
Oil prices look set to come under pressure next year as oversupply hits, but longer-term the risk is underinvestment as demand continues to grow past 2030
OPEC presses pause
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The complex crude glut picture
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The political fallout from high fuel prices is not as significant as it used to be
Markets
Philip K. Verleger
16 April 2024
Follow @PetroleumEcon
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Higher oil prices will not trouble Fed

Commentators need to shake off the myths of the past, with rising oil prices a boon for US economy

Speculative pressure boosted oil prices in the first quarter of 2024 and will likely do so in the second and third quarters as well. Some analysts assert that the rising prices will cause trouble for the US Federal Reserve. They will not. Today, oil has become relatively unimportant in the US economy. The real pain from high prices will be felt by European countries and the emerging market nations, where higher oil prices wreak economic havoc. Ironically, though, the oil-exporting countries may be the real losers from the speculation-driven price increases in the longer term. Several traders and forecasters see supply and demand balanc

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