Opposing forces will affect oil market balance
Sluggish demand growth may be matched by an almost as equally anaemic lift in output
The oil market in 2020 will, in our view, be dominated by three key themes—the global economic slowdown, the ongoing drop in momentum in the US shale industry, and the sticky non-Opec production growth. These are opposing forces with material impact on the oil market balance for 2020. Oil demand worries are not going away. The global economic slowdown combined with the US-China tariff war clearly hit oil demand growth. In light of this, we expect oil demand to grow by 0.8mn bl/d year-on-year in 2019, compared to 5-year average growth of 1.5mn bl/d year-on-year. The growth rate is almost halved, demonstrating the impact of the economic slowdown. Our expectation is that the global economic s
Also in this section
9 January 2026
OPEC+ remains on track as output falls, with only Gabon failing to hit its output targets in December, although Kazakhstan’s compliance was involuntary
9 January 2026
The Latin American producer’s crude prospects rely on a multi-pronged approach where even the relatively easy wins will take considerable time, effort and cost
9 January 2026
While many forecasters are reasserting the importance of oil and gas, petrostates should be under no illusion things are changing, and faster than they might think
8 January 2026
Indonesia and Malaysia are at the dawn of breathtaking digital capabilities. Their energy infrastructure must keep up with their ambitions
