The bear necessities

Opec has tried to put a floor in the price. But further strength in 2017 will depend on the reaction of other suppliers and aversion of many risks

Opec has done its best. Now the ball's in the other court. All being well-and that means no major geopolitical shock or collapse of a big producer country-oil prices should trade between $50 and $60 a barrel in 2017. Brief dips beneath that range are plausible and the occasional rally might lift the price into the low $60s. But Opec has now put a floor in place and others-not least tight oil producers-will install the ceiling. Feel confident with the price, but don't get carried away. On the supply side, Opec's 30 November agreement will be the dominant bullish theme for 2017. The deal took some in the market by surprise and scepticism lingers. The doubters have a few sources. First, as even