Oil-market forecasting: A thankless task
Supply and demand are behaving in ways the IEA did not previously expect
If only Benjamin Franklin had lived to see today’s oil market. Nothing is certain in life but death and taxes, the great man said. These days, he might have included revisions to oil-demand and supply forecasts. In 2010, the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned consumers that “the age of cheap oil is over”, saying "a veil of uncertainty" was hanging over global energy security because of rampant oil demand and flagging production. In its latest Medium Term Oil Market Report (MTOMR), which offers up the agency’s thoughts about supply and demand from now to 2021, the message is the opposite: brace yourselves for a lengthy period of low prices. Future supply constraints? Not so much. Don’t
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