Opec to stick with no cuts policy in Vienna

Opec is likely to sit on its hands this week in Vienna, hoping the market vindicates its policy in 2016

Global oil stocks are at record highs. The demand surge of 2015 is over and consumption growth next year will be more modest. US interest rates may be about to rise, putting more pressure on crude prices. Opec is producing well above its agreed ceiling. Non-Opec output continues to chug along at levels above expectations. It makes for a bearish picture, but barring a major surprise Opec will stick to its no-cuts policy in Vienna on 4 December. None of the necessary pre-meeting work to change tack has happened and price support is not on the agenda. Market recovery remains the goal of lynchpin Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf members. When Opec does get back to cutting, it will happen in a fir