Germany’s Ingolstadt refinery
Fresh capacity to shift global refining in 2024
Even diesel cracks may be poised to narrow, although other factors—such as attacks on shipping in the Red Sea—could buck the structural trends
Global refining is set to become a more crowded and competitive space in 2024 as capacity continues to ramp up at a number of new facilities. Africa’s largest refinery has already started operations, while the Mideast Gulf continues to cement its new position as a global refining hub. Pressure is mounting on Europe’s ageing refineries as a result. Much like other energy markets, the downstream sector continues to feel the effects of re-rerouted Russian trade and ongoing sanctions. And, as ever with refined products, the supply-demand outlook is different for each individual commodity, partly due to changes in underlying crude feedstock flows. Refinery ramp-ups will be a “huge story this year
Also in this section
5 December 2025
Mistaken assumptions around an oil bull run that never happened are a warning over the talk of a supply glut
4 December 2025
Time is running out for Lukoil and Rosneft to divest international assets that will be mostly rendered useless to them when the US sanctions deadline arrives in mid-December
3 December 2025
Aramco’s pursuit of $30b in US gas partnerships marks a strategic pivot. The US gains capital and certainty; Saudi Arabia gains access, flexibility and a new export future
2 December 2025
The interplay between OPEC+, China and the US will define oil markets throughout 2026
