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Letter from Iran: Nuclear miscalculation
The regime’s policy of using nuclear ambiguity as a deterrent may have failed but it has realised it has other cards to play, while its neighbours are reappraising their approach to security
Mideast plans big spending on gas to meet demand
The region’s gas producers are investing heavily in the fuel in order to satisfy burgeoning demand resulting from economic growth and a shift to cleaner fuels
Qatar’s Golden Pass dilemma
Golden Pass’s startup offers QatarEnergy a timely boost but may also force a difficult choice between honouring disrupted contracts and capitalising on soaring spot LNG prices
Lessons from the crisis
The US-Iran conflict demonstrates the need for diversification in several senses of the word. It also exposes the limits of Washington applying pressure on major oil and gas producers it considers geopolitical adversaries
Letter from the US: The oil market abyss
The overlooked oil supply issue is that even after the Strait of Hormuz opens, barrels won’t readily return
How Russia gains from the Hormuz supply shock
The US may be systemically stripping Russia of key geopolitical allies, but Moscow can reap rewards from the Hormuz crisis, both in the short and long term
Hormuz crisis delivers tailwinds for US LNG
Disruptions to Qatari LNG exports have highlighted the risks of concentrated supply, potentially strengthening the long-term position of US exporters despite limited near-term flexibility
Letter from London: The oil market should panic tomorrow
Emergency oil stocks provide a last line of defence to oil market shocks, so the IEA’s unprecedented 400m bl release represents something of a double-edged sword
Letter from Dubai: A safe haven under fire
Missiles over Dubai and disruption in Hormuz are testing the emirate’s reputation—and shaking the energy hub at the centre of the Gulf economy
Trump’s bid to reshape the global energy order
From Venezuela to Hormuz, the US—backed by the most powerful military force ever assembled—is redrawing not only oil and gas flows but also the global balance of energy power
Saudi Arabia is continuing to maintain cordial relations with Russia
US Opec Saudi Arabia Russia UAE Iran
Victor Kotsev
26 October 2022
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Russia offers Middle East a card in US game

Opec+ cut agreement suggests Moscow’s Middle Eastern stock remains high

A growing rift between the US and Saudi Arabia appears to be precipitating a wider political shift in the Middle East. Counter-intuitively, Russia’s clout as a possible power broker and a sought-after partner is growing, even after a disastrous military campaign in Ukraine that has exposed major shortcomings in its military and left Moscow more isolated than ever elsewhere across the globe. Analysts and Gulf officials admit that the Opec+ supply cut of 2mn bl/d, announced in early October, is mostly symbolic due to existing underproduction. Yet its political repercussions, with agreement between former energy export rivals Russia and Saudi Arabia continuing to hold firm—and jointly thumbing

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