Environment emerges as pandemic winner

The coronavirus pandemic has altered not only near-term energy supply, demand and price, but also, to some extent, their long-term trajectories

There is debate as to whether coronavirus will accelerate the energy transition. But S&P Global Platts Analytics believes that, while Covid-19 has reduced long-term global oil demand by 2.5mn bl/d, this is not enough to substantively bring forward the year of peak oil demand, which we project for around 2040. In addition, while the pandemic is forecast to cut energy sector CO₂ emissions by 27.5Gt over 2020-2050—equivalent to almost one full year of emissions—more than ten times this reduction is needed to meet a scenario in which global warming is limited to 2°C through to 2050. In short, for both long-term global oil demand and supply, the impact of coronavirus is a decided step down, b