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Letter from Iran: Testing times for Tehran-Beijing crude dynamics
Growing pressure from the Trump administration continues to threaten a resilient China-Iran oil nexus
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The alliance is keeping output on track and the market in balance amid geopolitical tensions and a fragile supply-demand ledger
Letter from Saudi Arabia: Big oil meets big shovel
As Saudi Arabia pushes mining as a new pillar of its economy, Saudi Aramco is positioning itself at the intersection of hydrocarbons, minerals and industrial policy
Explainer: Iran’s indispensable energy role
The country’s global energy importance and domestic political fate are interlocked, highlighting its outsized oil and gas powers, and the heightened fallout risk
OPEC’s discipline sets tone for 2026
OPEC+ remains on track as output falls, with only Gabon failing to hit its output targets in December, although Kazakhstan’s compliance was involuntary
OPEC presses pause
The group’s oil production declined in November, our latest analysis finds, amid divided sentiment over market balances and geopolitical jitters
Letter from Saudi Arabia: US-Saudi energy ties enter a new phase
Aramco’s pursuit of $30b in US gas partnerships marks a strategic pivot. The US gains capital and certainty; Saudi Arabia gains access, flexibility and a new export future
Letter from London: Oil’s golden triangle
The interplay between OPEC+, China and the US will define oil markets throughout 2026
The curious case of oil-on-water
The market is facing being drowned in excess crude, but one caveat is that a large chunk is due to buyers reluctant to snap up sanctioned barrels
OPEC+ nears output targets amid unsolved riddles
OPEC+ has proven to be astute at bringing back oil production, but mysteries around Chinese buying, missing barrels and oil-on-water have left the group in wait-and-see mode
Saudi Arabia Iran Yemen Opec
Gerald Butt
21 March 2018
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The Gulf stare down continues

Tension between the nations is high, but war doesn't appear to be on the cards, despite escalating Saudi rhetoric

"Saudi Arabia has the right to defend itself and take what measures it deems appropriate to do so," wrote a columnist in the influential Saudi daily al-Riyadh in February. The article was headlined: "What if a Saudi rocket was launched towards Tehran?". The author was commenting on the interception of missiles fired by Houthis in Yemen towards targets inside Saudi Arabia. The Saudis accuse Iran of supplying the rockets and instructing the Houthis in their use. There's no indication that Saudi Arabia plans to retaliate by firing missiles at Iran. But the rhetoric from the Saudi side has gone up a gear. Things are beginning to look dangerous. In the view of Colonel Lawrence Wilkerson, chief of

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