Opec and oil market dynamics
Opec's goal of defending high oil prices may suit some members in the short run, but its long-term impacts could be damaging
Since its historic agreement in November 2016, Opec's efforts to manage the oil market have shown signs of success: key benchmarks are in backwardation, speculative positioning has been at record length and a floor price of $60 a barrel has been defended. Strong Opec compliance—both voluntarily (Saudi Arabia) and involuntarily (Venezuela)—has been supported by stronger-than-expected demand growth. By Opec's own measure of success, its target of reducing five-year commercial OECD inventories has been largely met (currently between 30-50m barrels above five-year average). As Opec meets in June to review its progress, it has already signalled its dissatisfaction with using the five-year average
Also in this section
24 October 2024
Producers in the region see significant gains to be made by boosting output using the infrastructure already in place
23 October 2024
Markets have seen no material disruption from the war so far, but as the fighting goes on it is a matter of when, not if
23 October 2024
Majors in the region are pushing boundaries and could see significant upside, but longer-term risks remain
22 October 2024
Angola is unlikely to meet the official timeline for an IPO of state-owned oil giant Sonangol in 2026