How an Opec deal could work
Iran’s demands can be accommodated with some adjustments of the numbers
Getting Opec’s fractious members to agree on cuts has always been difficult: herding cats is easier. But the geopolitical rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran, enemies in proxy conflicts from Yemen to Syria, makes the negotiations underway now even harder. Iran is under less pressure than Saudi Arabia. The kingdom’s economy is suffering, while its rival enjoys a post-sanctions recovery. One equation sums up their different stances in negotiations about whether to cut output to support prices. Say Saudi Arabia slashes 0.5m barrels a day from its output – the idea it has floated – to 10.1m b/d, and gains a $5-a-barrel lift in the oil price, from $46 to $51/b. Its daily income rises by about $

Also in this section
9 April 2025
Oil’s resilience and gas’ growth will continue to define the global energy mix into 2050, according to Petroleum Economist analysis, but that does not have to spell doom and gloom for sustainability
9 April 2025
AI is powering the Middle East & North Africa’s digital transformation, but can the region meet soaring energy demand sustainably? Small modular reactors may hold the key
9 April 2025
North African producer hopeful of bringing in IOCs despite the disagreements over terms as latest bidding round is launched
9 April 2025
The surprise decision to bring on extra supply has coincided with better quota conformity from laggards in the group, Petroleum Economist analysis shows