How an Opec deal could work
Iran’s demands can be accommodated with some adjustments of the numbers
Getting Opec’s fractious members to agree on cuts has always been difficult: herding cats is easier. But the geopolitical rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran, enemies in proxy conflicts from Yemen to Syria, makes the negotiations underway now even harder. Iran is under less pressure than Saudi Arabia. The kingdom’s economy is suffering, while its rival enjoys a post-sanctions recovery. One equation sums up their different stances in negotiations about whether to cut output to support prices. Say Saudi Arabia slashes 0.5m barrels a day from its output – the idea it has floated – to 10.1m b/d, and gains a $5-a-barrel lift in the oil price, from $46 to $51/b. Its daily income rises by about $
Also in this section
17 January 2025
Supply glut or supply deficit are both plausible outlooks, with tariffs and sanctions among the key risks that could swing the pendulum
17 January 2025
European Commission is on its way to meeting clean energy goals, but energy security concerns and higher costs may give it second thoughts
17 January 2025
The CEO of QatarEnergy has highlighted the potential impact a new EU directive could have on energy exports to the continent
16 January 2025
The government’s resource nationalism is aggravating the NOC’s debt position and could yet worsen if also tasked with the decarbonisation shift
