LNG in 2026: What factors to watch

Petroleum Economist examines the critical developments that look set to govern the course of the LNG market for this year

After several years of record volumes of new LNG supply being sanctioned—overwhelmingly in the US and Qatar—the third major wave of global LNG supply is finally arriving, and its scale will be formidable. Roughly 220mt of additional LNG production is expected to come onstream between 2025 and 2030, equivalent to around 300bcm of natural gas. The widely held consensus among analysts is that 2026 will be the first year in many where supply growth outpaces demand growth. That imbalance should translate into lower prices. In the near term, cheaper gas will trigger a demand response primarily through fuel switching. If lower prices are sustained, they could also underpin structural demand growth,