The urgency is clear. Industrial emissions remain stubbornly high, and hydrogen is widely seen as a critical part of the solution. But transporting hydrogen over long distances presents technical and economic challenges. Ammonia offers a practical and scalable way to bridge that gap.
The strongest argument for ammonia is its versatility. Not only is it carbon-free at the point of use, but it is also easier to ship than hydrogen, requiring neither extreme cryogenic conditions nor liquid organic carriers. With its higher energy density, it is well-suited for long-distance trade and already benefits from decades of infrastructure— including storage terminals, pipelines and shipping fleets built for the fertiliser market. Clean ammonia can make immediate use of this global value chain.
As Vibeke Rasmussen, SVP clean ammonia at Yara International, put it in a recent webinar: “If we are to decarbonise the value chain, we must start with the feedstock itself —and clean ammonia is the way forward.”
From production to infrastructure
Definitions of clean ammonia vary. Industry shorthand such as ‘green’, ‘blue’, ‘renewable’ or ‘low carbon’ are common, but it is unsatisfactory for customers seeking certainty. What matters most is the carbon intensity of the molecule. Japan has set the clearest benchmark so far: 0.87kg of CO₂/kg of ammonia. For ammonia to function as a globally traded commodity, harmonised methodologies will be essential, not just for certification but also for how emissions are calculated. Without this, customers cannot make like-for-like comparisons or prove their decarbonisation claims with confidence.
On production, two main pathways dominate. Blue ammonia leverages mature, large-scale technologies. Autothermal reformers (ATRs) combined with carbon capture can already operate at 3,500t/d and above, with capture rates of 90% or more. These proven building blocks make blue ammonia a low-risk option for customers who need scale quickly. By contrast, green ammonia is newer and typically smaller scale. It relies on renewable power for electrolysis, which then feeds hydrogen into the Haber-Bosch loop. The challenges are as much economic as technical: electrolyser costs remain high, efficiency improvements are still emerging and intermittent renewable supply requires careful integration.
Both routes will play a role: blue ammonia to establish scale and green ammonia to build the renewable future. Importantly, technology readiness levels differ. Blue ammonia sits at very high readiness, while green ammonia is still maturing. Customers weighing investments should factor in these differences when balancing near-term certainty with long-term ambition.
In the same webinar, Tobias Birwe, head of sales ammonia and methanol at thyssenkrupp Uhde, underlined this distinction, noting that ATR technology can achieve capture rates of up to 99%. “For me, the best indicator that the market is truly coming is when contracts are awarded and projects move into execution,” he said.
Infrastructure is equally vital. One of ammonia’s greatest advantages is as a hydrogen carrier, but this relies on efficient cracking. At Johnson Matthey, we have developed ADEPT™ technology, a large-scale ammonia cracking process capable of producing up to 500t/d of hydrogen. Capable of using ammonia as the fuel within the cracker, ADEPT technology avoids reintroducing carbon emissions into the supply chain.
Analysis shows that, for Northern Europe in particular, importing clean ammonia from regions with abundant low-cost renewables and then cracking it back to hydrogen is more economical than producing green hydrogen locally. This makes cracking an essential enabler for customers seeking to scale demand without incurring the high costs of local production.
Collaboration will be critical in delivering infrastructure. Johnson Matthey’s long-standing partnership with thyssenkrupp Uhde illustrates this point. By combining proven ATR experience with advanced catalysts and integrated plant designs, the two companies offer customers tailored solutions for ammonia production that can range from modularised plants to world-scale complexes. Success in this market will depend on partnerships of this kind: technology providers, financiers and offtakers aligned to share risk and unlock opportunity.
Commercial realities and market signals
The commercial environment is complex. Global commitments to low-carbon hydrogen already exceed $100b, but some projects have been delayed or cancelled. This is typical of early-stage industries: progress is rarely linear. What matters is that overall momentum remains positive. For customers, the takeaway is that temporary pauses should not be mistaken for a lack of opportunity.
As Tarek Hosny, VP low carbon projects at Fertiglobe, pointed out in the webinar, “the shift is happening—it is more a matter of timing than uncertainty.”
Cost remains the immediate hurdle. Clean ammonia is more expensive to produce than grey, and customers will need to pay a premium in the early years. This is where policy and regulation play a critical role. Incentive mechanisms differ around the world. The US supports blue ammonia through tax credits under the Inflation Reduction Act. Japan subsidises coal-ammonia co-firing via contracts for difference. Europe has introduced the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, which taxes high-carbon imports and makes clean molecules more competitive. And Germany’s H2 Global programme is testing appetite through competitive auctions.
For customers, these mechanisms create opportunities to secure supply at better terms while demonstrating leadership on decarbonisation. Yet the most important factor is offtake. Long-term agreements give investors confidence, unlock project financing and accelerate deployment. Without them, even technically ready projects struggle to progress. Lenders align their loan tenors with contract lengths, which means offtake agreements directly shape financing terms. Early movers willing to sign such contracts can secure preferential access and help set the direction of the market.
Regional demand signals also matter. Europe, Japan and South Korea are leading the way, driven by regulation, infrastructure readiness and government support. Customers in other regions will benefit from watching how these early markets evolve, but those who wait too long risk missing the first wave of cost reductions and infrastructure buildout.
Safety, often raised as a concern, should not be a barrier. Ammonia has been handled safely at industrial scale for over a century, with 70 years of global shipping experience. The challenge is ensuring the safety culture developed in fertiliser and chemical industries is transferred effectively into new sectors such as power and marine. With training and engineering safeguards, ammonia can be deployed responsibly.
Staying the course
By 2030, I expect to see world-scale blue ammonia plants in full operation, capturing and sequestering millions of tonnes of CO₂ each year. Co-firing of ammonia in power plants should be commercially demonstrated, and the first marine engines capable of burning ammonia will be active. Cracking technologies such as ADEPT technology will enable Europe and Asia to import clean molecules flexibly and cost-effectively.
Yet production alone will not guarantee success. Real progress depends on demand. Customers across energy, shipping and industry must commit to offtake agreements. Their willingness to act will build investor confidence, reduce risk and create the virtuous cycle of scale driving down cost.
Policy will also need to be pragmatic. Blue ammonia can provide immediate volumes at scale while renewables build up, and regulatory frameworks should recognise its role rather than setting shifting or unrealistic targets. Stability and realism in policy will be just as important as ambition.
As Rasmussen cautioned in the webinar, without standardised methodologies for measuring carbon intensity the industry risks “comparing apples and oranges”. Transparency will be essential if customers are to trust that the molecules they buy genuinely deliver decarbonisation.
The clean ammonia market is young, but the trajectory is clear. Technology is ready, infrastructure exists and regulatory support is growing. The missing piece is demand certainty. For potential customers, the opportunity is significant: secure access to a versatile, carbon-free molecule that can underpin long-term decarbonisation strategies.
The green shift is happening. Success will come from those willing to commit, collaborate and stay the course.
The author is managing director, low-carbon hydrogen ammonia, Johnson Matthey
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