Electric vehicles—the great unknown

Forecasters agree that EVs will hurt oil demand—but on the size of the impact consensus is scant

The growing popularity of electric vehicles (EVs) has been one of the major themes of the new century. The global fleet is now greater than 1m units, annual sales are growing by about 50%, and zero-carbon transport will be a trend for the next two decades. Rapid EV development is a critical part of the decarbonisation goals enshrined in the Paris Agreement. Transport accounts for about a fifth of global emissions, according to World Bank data, and only a wholesale shift to zero-carbon transport would let the world reach its target by the second half of this century. If so, oil will be a casualty. Transportation fuels account for around two-thirds of every barrel of oil refined. "It is very l